Super Fun 21

Silverton, a locals casino in Las Vegas has a very interesting modified Blackjack game called Super Fun 21. Here are the rules: (see below for photo of rules sheet)

• Player may double down (for full amount) on two or more cards, even after splitting and hitting (including aces)
• Player may split equal valued cards, including aces, up to three times
• Player may surrender one half of the bet on any two or more cards totaling less than 21, even after hitting, splitting, or doubling (play may not surrender if dealer has Blackjack)
• Any hand totaling 20 or less with 6 cards pays even money instantly (no instant winners or bonuses on double down hands)
• Any hand totaling 21 with 5 or more cards pays 2-to-1 instantly (no instant winners or bonuses on double down hands)
• Any player Blackjack is a guaranteed winner. Blackjack in diamonds pays 2-to-1 any other Blackjack pays even money

If you didn't get it, the biggest concept is that this is blackjack with folding allowed. It can work well in those horrible situations of having 16 when the dealer is showing a Ten or Ace.

All of these rules work well in the favor of the player. is really advantageous. Futhermore, the Silverton plays this with a single deck.

The only down side is that player Blackjack pays even-money, not 1.5 (excluding that rare diamonds BJ perc; 1:16). I haven't calculated the math, but giving up the 0.5 winning for the surrender option is worth it as far as I'm concerned. Any time you give the player more options it provides for a more interesting game; combine that with a single deck and the forfeit option can be a good calculated risk for loss protection.

Jungle Poker

Launched on May 20, 2006, Jungle Poker is the first implementation of Dynamic Gaming Systems.

Their software is pretty good, I like it. Here are my notes:

• Table statistics: number of % rivers seen, etc
• Resizing of window (100%, 75%, 50%)
• Macromedia Flash technology
• Not very dynamic UI, but Dealer turns face and looks at active player
• You can take notes on individual players
• Sit in/out is fast (I’ve found delays on other site)
• Interesting note: next to the dealer, it shows the casino raked amount
• Looks like its supposed to have a video/microphone integration, but I couldn't get it working; it might just be a Macromedia function
• Bet Pot option; but only out of non-turn

Network:

822 players online when I was, however just 70 real money players.

Odds of hitting a flush draw in Texas Holdem

I recently won a bet about the odds of getting a flush, on a flush draw. I bet $20 that the chances were better than 16%; and indeed, it actually turns out to be closer to 20%.

The simple statistical calculation is as follows. A total of 6 cards have been displayed (4 on table, 2 in players hand). 4 of the cards are a suited, leaving 9 remaining cards from that suit in a deck which could contain 46 different cards. 9/46 = 19.6%

Actual Scenario:

• Billy pocket cards: Ac, 7h
• Akram pocket cards: 2c, 9c
• Flop: 4c, 6c, Jh
• Turn: 10c

Billy's Odds
At this point Billy is hoping the River will hit another club. As we found above, the chance of this from Billy's point of view is 19.6%. Plus having an Ace gives him high flush and nearly 52% for a win. Since Akram bluffs a lot, a high card or pair might actually be enough.


Akrams Odds
Akram, has a different point of view; he already has the flush. A player in his position has about 95% of winning.


Actual Odds
Akram didn't hessitate and goes all in and Billy promptly calls it. Both players made the right decision, but Akrams is clearly in the lead since he has more information. The actual chance that Billy could have pulled it off was 15.9%. Just below my 16% assesment.


Clarifying Odds
This is why its important to clarify odds. There are player perceived odds and actual odds. I analysed the individual player percieved odds for Billy and Akram indepenently above, then the actual odds considers what both players have at the same time.

	Player Perceived	Actual
Akram	95%	84%
Billy	52%	16%

Whereas Akram believed he had a lock on a 95% win, it was actually 84%. Billy however felt a warm 52% chance when infact it was 16%. When you watch TV poker they show actual odds which accounts for all the cards the camera sees from all players; even the ones which folded. This gives the most accurate likelihood estimation.

In this bet, I made sure to clarify that it was a greater than 16% chance of winning from Billys perspective.... so I expect to collect soon!

Oh, the outcome.. A non-club came on the River and Akram won. Billy shouted for the 20th time that tournament, "I can't believe it, you're so lucky", for the 20th time... something which we all should have predicted!